Moved.

I moved the blog to the following link, since I was having some problems with WordPress..

http://twinsguy1.blogspot.com/

I will be shifting all of these posts over there.

Ick.

Add Eddie Guardado to the list of Bill Smith’s failed acquisitions. I’ll have a write up posted sometime tomorrow, but I need to sleep this one off.

Also, feel free to comment on any posts I make, if anyone is actually reading this thing yet.

Bill Smith’s Moves; Revisited

Change we can believe in. No, that’s not just an unqualified presidential candidates motto, it’s also the motto the Twins organization had when they chose previously unknown Bill Smith to replace media darling Terry Ryan as the Twins new General Manager. Let me tell you, if Barack Obama fails as often as Bill Smith has in his first full season as Twins General Manager, people might be saying George who? (Okay, not really, nobody’s forgetting the debacle these last 8 years have been, no matter what.)

Bill Smith had a very tough job ahead of him when he took over for Terry Ryan. He had to decide if it was right to re-sign Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva, as well as facing the tough decision of trading Johan Santana. The Twins offered Torii Hunter 3 years and $45 million, Carlos Silva 3 years and $21 million, and Johan Santana 5 years and $100 million. All offers were competitive, but were clearly below market value for the three. While people will disagree and say that those players were offered more than they deserved, it’s hard to argue the market value was higher considering they all got contracts worth more money per season, and for longer.

Carlos Silva left for four years and $40 million from Seattle, Torii Hunter broke our hearts by signing with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for 5 years and whopping $90 million, and that Johan fellow ultimately felt he was being lowballed and wanted to be traded.

Silva has been awful. Imagine Livan Hernandez, but for another 3 years and another $33 million. Yeah, he’s been that bad this season. Sure, playing for the Twins would have helped him some, since the Twins have a far better defense than the Mariners, but not enough to warrant the money he got. Bill Smith got lucky that another team was willing to pay Silva so much money, because even at 3 years and $21 million, Carlos Silva would be horribly overpaid.

Torii Hunter has done basically what we grew accustomed too while in LA, except he hasn’t thrown his teammates under the bus like he did so often here in Minnesota despite being a ‘team leader.’ Hunter has been a very good CF this season, something the Twins have lacked, but there’s no way the Twins could justify paying Torii Hunter $18 million a season for the next 6 years. Absolutely no way. That said, the difference between Carlos Gomez and Torii Hunter would have the Twins sitting in first place at the moment. The Twins did manage to get Shooter Hunt and Carlos Gutierrez via the draft picks they landed for Hunter, so ultimately the Twins may end up on the top end of losing Torii Hunter, but for this season they are definitely regretting not having him patrolling Center Field.

The Johan Santana trade is inexcusable. The Boston Red Sox reportedly were willing to send the Twins Jon Lester, CoCo Crisp, Jed Lowrie and possibly Justin Masterson, or the Twins could have had Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie for Johan Santana. The Yankees countered that with Phil Hughes, and varying reports left many of the other prospects basically to be guessed, but a very good package nonetheless. Bill Smith ultimately tried to get both Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury, or both Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. The Yankees and Red Sox both balked, and the Twins finally had to settle for the Mets package of Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra and Kevin Mulvey. Wow. At the time, the trade was criticized by everyone, since the Twins failed to get the Mets top prospect, Fernando Martinez. However, the Twins really liked Carlos Gomez, and the pitchers had some decent upside (especially Guerra). Ick. Carlos Gomez is still a season away or so, but he struggled offensively this season. His defense has been outstanding, but his offense has been so bad he’s still hurt the Twins more than he’s helped. Humber, Mulvey and Guerra all had decent years in the minors, but nothing that would seem to project greatness for any of these 3 pitchers. Unless Carlos Gomez becomes a very good CF, the Twins got fleeced for the best pitcher in Twins history, because Bill Smith tried to bluff two of the most egotistical organizations in the league, and those organizations were so offended by this antic they refused to make another offer for Santana, even when the price had dropped.

Now, Bill Smith also made a few moves that were not nearly as necessary. He traded for Craig Monroe, and gave him $3.82 million for one year. Yeah, that was a great move. Monroe was awful before being cut by the Twins, and his track record the last few years proved that he would be bad this season. He signed Mike Lamb and Adam Everett from the Astros, and both have failed miserably. Lamb was cut a few weeks ago after struggling for months, and Everett’s biggest strength was his defense, but his shoulder injury basically made Everett worthless. Awesome.

Lastly, Bill Smith and the Twins agreed to a trade that was going to send Matt Garza, Juan Rincon and Jason Bartlett to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie. Then Juan Rincon failed the physical, and the Twins had to replace him with young relief prospect Eduardo Morlan, and the Twins were stuck with Juan Rincon, who cost the Twins 4 or 5 games throughout the first few months before they ultimately cut the cord anyways, eating the rest of his salary. Garza and Young both needed changes of scenery, but it’s safe to say Garza has benefitted

The best move Bill Smith has made all season was claiming Craig Breslow off waivers from the Indians, but even that move hasn’t been as good as advertised. Breslow barely pitches, and when he does it’s usually in low leverage situations, so his impact has been minimal to say the least. While one year is far to soon to grade the moves Bill Smith made since they were obviously made with an eye toward the future, his first year on the job has ultimately cost the Twins 8 or so games already, and with the division within striking distance, it may end up being the difference between watching our favorite team come October or watching the hated White Sox.

Twins, Vikings, and Other Musings

Isn’t it funny how sports have such a huge effect on our day to day moods? If you are strictly a Minnesota sports fan like myself, then this weekend was a great example of the top and bottom of those moods. Saturday, the Twins swept the Orioles, while the White Sox were postponed yet again, so the Twins were in a first place tie once again with the Sox. The Twins even managed to gain a game in the Wild Card standings since Boston split with the Blue Jays. Best of all, the Twins scored 24 runs in 2 games and their offensive woes seemed to be behind them.

Enter Sunday. The Vikings choked away a 15-0 lead in the 4th quarter, Tarvaris Jackson looked like Kordell Stewart, and a 160 yard rushing day from Adrian Peterson went wasted. The Twins also struggled, as their offense was even worse than anyone could have predicted, scoring 0 runs through 8 innings against the Orioles young starter, Lis, who prior to this start had a 7.75 ERA. The Twins reserves managed to scrap together some hits and eventually put 3 runs on the board before stranding the tying run on deck, but they never really seemed set to make a comeback. Not only did the Vikings and Twins lose, the Packers beat the Lions for an early 2 game lead, and the White Sox swept the Tigers, giving them first place back, with a 1.5 game lead.

Needless to say, Sunday was not a very good day for sports fans around the state. But hey, at least the Gophers are still undefeated, right?

It was interesting today to see the Brewers fired Ned Yost in the middle of a playoff run, mainly because the team has collapsed of late and if a change wasn’t made I’m sure the execs felt the team would miss the playoffs. If the Brewers go on to win the World Series, do the Brewers send Ned Yost a ring?

Is it just me, or is Entourage not nearly as good as it used to be? I’ve watched both episodes so far this season, and there seems to be far less humor, and the show isn’t nearly as interesting as it once was. Hopefully as the season goes on the show will improve, because it was at one point my favorite show on television, but I’m not holding my breath.

I’ll do my best to come back later tonight and write about the Twins game, although it likely won’t be too detailed because I’ll be flipping back and forth between Gossip Girl, One Tree Hill, and the Twins game. So if you want to come back and likely read about something I didn’t like from those shows, or if you just want to come back, there should be another post up by around midnight central time tonight, unless the Twins game goes late.

NFL Picks

The following post is assuming that hypothetically, betting was legal. If it were, this is who I would bet on.. I think.

Home Team is in Caps.

CHIEFS (-3.5) OVER Raiders

The Chiefs looked at least passable last week against the obviously decimated Patriots, while the Raiders looked like the same mess they’ve been over the last few years. Lane Kiffin, the Minnesota kid, seems to want to get fired, and who can blame him? The Raiders are the worst run team in the NFL, and that includes the Detroit Lions. Not to mention Brodie Croyle’s injury is addition by subtraction for the Chiefs, since Damon Huard is a step above him and will get the start this week. I expect the Chiefs to win by at least two scores.

Kansas City 24, Oakland 14

Titans (+1) OVER BENGALS

Chad Javon Ochocinco (Yes, it’s just one word, not Ocho Cinco) seems due for a breakout game, but I think he’ll have trouble against Finnegan, the young star corner for Tennessee. Couple that with a great run defense that shut down the Jaguars running game last week, and it could be a tough week for the Bengals. The Titans are also another team who likely will benefit from their starting QB going down in week 1, as Kerry Collins can stretch the field with his arm and should open up the field for speedy rookie Chris Johnson.

Tennessee 23, Cincinnati 10.

VIKINGS (+2) OVER Colts

Tarvaris Jackson looked bad last week, although he did have a better second half. A poorly called offensive game cost the Vikings last week, and if they continue to keep Jackson in the pocket, they will lose this week as well. However, I’m banking on the fact that the Vikings will roll Jackson out more this week (even on plays that aren’t play action) and will make it easier for Jackson to read a defense since he ultimately will only have half a field to read. Manning will probably have a better game this week than last, since the Vikings pass defense clearly isn’t fixed, but the Colts played so poorly last week at home there’s no way I can take them giving points on the road against the Vikes.

Vikings 27, Colts 24

Saints (-1) OVER REDSKINS

The Saints looked great last week, beating the Bucs on a last minute drive in which Drew Brees looked like one of the best QB’s in the league. The Saints are without Marques Colston, but the Redskins offense looked very weak against the Giants, and Jason Campbell looked as bad as Tarvaris Jackson did. If Reggie Bush can continue to be a factor through the air, the Saints should run away with this game, even on the road.

New Orleans 31, Washington 20

Packers (-3) over LIONS

This game is screaming upset at me, and I’m not quite sure why. The Lions looked terrible against a team many expected to be the worst team in football (Atlanta) and the Packers were efficient and beat a possible Super Bowl Contender, so taking the Packers on the road seems like a no-brainer. However, the no-brainers always seem to come back and hurt you, but no matter what my instincts are telling me I can’t possibly take Jon Kitna to lose by less than 3 points, or even win a game.

Green Bay 24, Detroit 20

Bears (+3) over PANTHERS

Steve Smith is out for another week, and I think the Panthers will suffer offensively this week without him. Last week’s hero, Donte Rosario, is questionable, so the passing attack will probably take a step back. The Bears defense looked great last week, as good as it has in years, and I think the Bears defense wins this game for them single handedly. Hester will score his first touchdown of the game to put it away down the stretch, and the Bears will be the talk of the media for a few days.

Chicago 28, Carolina 17

RAMS (+8.5) over Giants

I have no reasoning behind this choice. It’s week 2, the Rams looked awful, the Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champs, and are only an 8.5 point favorite? Seems like a sucker bet. I don’t know think the Rams will win, but I think they’ll keep the game close enough to make the Giants sweat before Bulger throws away a chance to get the Rams the win on a costly INT, Tarvaris Jackson style.

New York Giants 34, St Louis Rams 30

JAGUARS (-5) over Bills

MJD and Fred Taylor were shut down last week by a dominating Tennessee defense. Although the Bills have a solid defense, I think MJD and Taylor will run all over the Bills. Matt Jones will be dropped in thousands of fantasy leagues after this week, and Marshawn Lynch owners will worry when Lynch leaves in the third quarter with an injury. Jacksonville should score numerous times this week.

Jacksonville 31, Buffalo 21

Falcons (+7) over BUCS

The Falcons are getting 7 points against Brian Griese? Take this one to the bank.

Atlanta 23, Tampa Bay 7

SEAHAWKS (-6.5) over 49ers

I think Matt Hasselback will have yet another bad week, or at least mediocre by his standards, but I think the Seahawks 3-headed running back combo will explode this week, combining for over 200 yards rushing while leading the Seahwaks to an easy victory over the 49ers. JT O’Sullivan couldn’t stick in New Orleans before Brees, or Minnesota before and during T-Jack, so I don’t expect him to be the savior the SF media seems to be annointing him. He’ll struggle this week again with turnovers.

Seattle 35, San Fran 14

CARDINALS (-6.5) over Dolphins

I love this matchup for the Cards. Kurt Warner should have a very good week (I benched Favre to start Warner in my fantasy league) and the Dolphins looked average last week. Chad Pennington can’t seem to throw a football further than 10 yards, which really hurt the team last week in their 2 minute offense. Look for the  Cards to score early and often, while the Dolphins offense will continue the dink and dunk throws boring the entire world.

Arizona 27, Miami 10

Patriots (+1) over JETS

Nobody seems to be giving the Patriots a chance this week without Tom Brady, but I think that’s a mistake. The Patriots defense isn’t as good as it’s been in year’s past, and the defensive backfield appears to be a weakness. However, Favre doesn’t know the Jets playbook all that well and I think Bellicheck will have a scheme that really confuses Favre and forces two or three turnovers from John Madden’s lover. Matt Cassell will have some trouble in his first start since 1999, but I think we’ll have a Laurence Maroney sighting this week and the Patriots will “upset” the Jets.

Pats 21, Jets 17

BRONCOS (-1) over Chargers

Eddie Royal came out of nowhere last week to lead the Broncos offense, but keep in mind it was against the Oakland Raiders. With Brandon Marshall returning this week I think the Broncos offense will look nearly as good as last week, especially since the Chargers will be without Merriman. It’s tough to discount an LT led team, but I think the Broncos offense is too much this week.

Denver 38, San Diego 34

BROWNS (+6.5) over Steelers

Everyone in the media is calling the Steelers the AFC favorites now. Sure, they looked great last week, and the Browns looked awful. Cleveland goes into Pittsburgh and pulls an upset, and the media collectively has a huge gash on their knee from jumping off the bandwagon.

Cleveland 30, Pittsburgh 21

Eagles (+6.5) over Cowboys

Jessica Simpson.

Eagles 28, Cowboys 22

12 team parlay (all to beat the spread): Bears, Jags, Broncos, Vikings, Cards, Falcons, Rams, Packers, Pats, Chiefs, Saints, Titans

4 team parlay: Vikes (to win), Packers (to win), Saints (-1), Titans (+1)

So close

There’s nothing better than being a college student, and being able to set up your classes so you have no class on Thursday’s. That’s exactly what I did, so when I woke up at 12:30 yesterday afternoon I had already missed the first inning of the Twins game, but I was able to watch the rest from the comfort of my own bed. When the Twins failed to score runs throughout the game in pretty standard run scoring situations, the game just had that feeling. No matter what happens, the game was going to go to extra innings, and even though the Twins had dominated most of the game, it seemed inevitable that their bullpen would blow the lead and the Twins would lose a golden opportunity to sweep Kansas City. Well, guess what? That’s exactly what happened.

The fact that the White Sox lost to the Blue Jays 6-4 made the Twins loss a bit easier to take since the Twins ultimately didn’t lose any ground. However, it also makes the loss extremely frustrating because of the fact that the Twins had numerous chances to win the game, and should be tied for first place right now. Tomorrow, the Twins send Scott Baker to the hill against Daniel Cabrera and the Orioles, while Jon Danks and the White Sox try to get past Justin Verlander and the Tigers. With those matchups, it seems that the Twins have a good chance to be tied for first place at this time tomorrow, but that’s why they play the games. The Twins need to take care of business.

Big thanks to Aaron Gleeman for linking this blog in his most recent post, and based on the statistics so far, every view this blog has had has come via Aarongleeman.com. Nothing better than free advertising, so thanks, AG. I’ll put in a good word to Keeley Hazell the next time she’s over.

Sorry for the short post, but it’s 5:20 here in Minnesota and I have class in a few hours, so I’m going to cut this short and get some sleep. I’ll probably have a post up here Saturday after the Gophers game, and I will for sure have one up Sunday after the Vikings game, with Twins notes mixed in as well. Come back and read some more!

Worst. Monday. Ever.

Sunday night I just could not fall asleep. I was way too excited to watch the opening Monday Night football game between the Vikings and Packers. As a life-long Vikings fan, nothing seemed sweeter than the potential of watching my favorite team beat my most hated team, at Lambeau field, especially after the tampering charge that cost the Vikings any real shot at Brett Favre. I was so excited for the game that I decided the night before I would skip class on Monday, and just spend the day doing nothing while I waited for what I was hoping would become the Greatest. Monday. Ever. If only.

As a male who got sucked into the Gossip Girl/One Tree Hill series’ by his girlfriend, I must admit the shows really aren’t all that girly, and I actually find myself interested every week when it’s time for a new episode. Of course, with both shows appearing on Monday, from 7-9 (Gossip Girl, then OTH) I simply used the DVR to tape the episodes, knowing full well I would be watching the Vikings game from 6-10 or so. Hey, don’t laugh at me. At least I chose the football game. No, really, stop laughing.

The Greatest. Monday. Ever. seemed well on it’s way to being that, as the Vikings stopped the Packers on the first three drives, and Adrian Peterson had just broke off a 34 yard scamper that he nearly cut back across the field for the first touchdown of the season. The Vikings ultimately were held to a field goal, but for a team that kicked to start the game, and was playing on the road at Lambeau Field, a 3-0 lead seemed just fine. A long completion to Greg Jennings, and six penalties later, the Packers scored on a third and goal play that appeared to be shut down for sure, and took the lead 7-3.

Around 6:58 or so, my DVR decided to tell me that I had a recording at 7, which was Gossip Girl. I clicked yes, continue recording, but then when 7:00 came, my TV inadvertently switched from the ESPN HD to the CW. What the hell? Turns out my brother was recording The Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles (That sounds WAY cooler, maybe I should say my brother was the one watching Gossip Girl and OTH) so I had no choice; I had to go to my room and flip back and forth if I wanted to watch Gossip Girl on a television screen rather than my laptop. The Vikings are playing poorly, and now I have to flip between two things I was legitimately excited to watch? Awesome start.

I’ve spent the last few months defending Tarvaris Jackson, the Vikings QB, since this was just his third year in the league and he showed signs of improvement over the second half of the season last year, posting a QB rating north of 80.0. That’s exactly the kind of game manager the Vikings need, but T-Jack also brings the potential for a big play with his legs or his deep ball.

Way to make me look foolish in that first half, Tarvaris. 2-7, with a completion of 9 yards and a completion of 7 yards, and also sacked twice for a loss of 10. At halftime, the Vikings only trailed 10-3, but Jackson’s 2-7 for 6 yards in the first half gave Vikings fans good reason to worry. Sure enough, Jackson came out in the second half firing, and nearly got the Vikings a long touchdown pass on a slant to Bernard Berrian before Berrian got tripped up as he was pulling away. A few unlucky breaks and the Vikings again were stuck settling for a field goal, trailing 10-6.

Usually when a team is dominating in the third quarter, they go on to win the game. The Vikings ran 29 plays in the third quarter, while the Packers ran 3. The final score of the quarter? Packers 7, Vikings 3, giving the Packers a 17-6 edge heading into the fourth quarter. How did that happen? The Packers offense had a 3 and out, the Vikings offense sustained three long drives, and were in the middle of the third when the quarter ended. Oh, and that fateful Punt Return by the Packers that seemed to just suck any momentum right from the Vikings.

Then, something happened. Fourth and 1, ten minutes to go, and the Vikings are at the GB 20 yard line. Anyone that’s ever played Madden knows you go for it. Brad Childress did precisely that, but he called a pass. Jackson had looked better this half, but when you have the best RB in the NFC and one of the best O-Line’s, why are you passing the ball on 4th and short? Well, it worked. T-Jack threw a lob to a wide open Sidney Rice who beat the Packers defenders to the pylon, and the Vikes were within striking distance at 17-12. An awful pass by Jackson on the 2-point conversion cost the Vikings a chance to be within a field goal, but they were close.

The rest is history. The Packers scored with 6 minutes left, the Vikings marched down the field and scored on a 3 yard AP run, and again Vikings fans hoped for the best. When the ensuing onside kick went RIGHT THROUGH ATARI BIGBY’s hands, our hope was even higher. Then the ball went out of bounds, and we knew Jackson didn’t have what it would take to march down the field with no timeouts when the Vikings defense shut down the Packers one more time. Even after the Packers holding call gave the Vikings a free timeout and allowed the Vikings to get the ball back with just under two minutes to go, you just knew Jackson was going to throw an INT. After a first down and the Vikings at their own 43 yard line, Jackson overthrew Vicante Shittyancoe and the game was over.

After I spent the next hour or so fuming about the game, I decided I would watch OTH and hopefully that would make me happy for at least a little bit. *SPOILER ALERT* If you plan to watch the episode but haven’t yet, don’t read the following, since I will be giving away one of the most shocking endings to an episode in a long time.

The episode started out much like the Vikings game. Early excitement (Nathan on the court, dominating) followed by boredom and sloppy play (Payton and Lucas) and the first half ending with a bit of excitement (Brooke asking Deb if she has a gun, the Vikings blocking the FG). The fact that Quentin was helping Nathan make a comeback, was so good with Jamie, and seemed to be turning his life around was the feel good story I needed for a pick me up after that debacle of a Vikings game. Even though Nanny Carrie still had Dan, he seemed to be nearing an escape and was playing mind games with her to make her even more insecure, which was great as well. Lucas and Payton were getting married, Nathan was going to follow his dream and finally make a comeback, and Brooke was going to get revenge. Then, it happened. Right as you start to get hope, and things are looking good, it all ends in the blink of an eye. Quentin, on his way home, stopped to get gas and went in to pay for it, only to find out the gas station had been robbed just moments earlier, and the man behind the counter had killed the gas station attendant. Quentin turns around, the killer says have a nice night, and for the slightest second you hoped he would be able to walk out of that gas station. Then the gun shows up behind Quentin’s head, and just like that, he’s dead. They just killed off one of my favorite characters, and it was the most unexpected thing that happened all night. Needless to say, the Greatest. Monday. Ever. turned into the Worst. Monday. Ever.
But hey, at least the Twins had the night off so they couldn’t blow another lead in the late innings. The only possible positive from Monday that I could have found would have been to see that the White Sox had lost. Unfortunately, their game was delayed due to weather, so even that silver lining wasn’t available.